“The more things change, the more they stay the same,” is a phrase that may fairly illustrate Realtor.com’s newly outlook housing outlook for 2026.
The listings platform expects fixed mortgage rates on 30-year home loans to end next year at 6.3%, around current levels.
In the housing history books, only a small increase in home sales may distinguish next year from the one ending just four weeks from now.
“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a statement accompanying the forecast, describing market conditions next year as remaining “far from easy.”
Realtor.com forecasts existing-home sales to increase 1.7% in 2026 to an annualized pace of 4.13 million units, projecting full-year totals of 4.07 million for 2025, just 0.1% above the 4.06 million existing-home sales in 2024 and slightly below the 4.09 million sales in 2023.
Underscoring the historic sales slowdown now entering its fourth year in 2026, annual existing-home sales averaged 5.28 million units from 2013 to 2019, with average sales of 5.55 million units — or about 250,000 more sales per year — from 2016 to 2019.
“Entrenched” lock-in effects sustaining the slowdown will likely persist in 2026 if mortgage rates remain in their current range of 6% to 6.5%, according to Realtor.com, especially since about 80% of mortgaged homeowners enjoy a rate below 6%.
Another step toward the “healthier housing market” Hale envisions is cooling home price appreciation, which the company forecasts will rise by 2.2% nationwide in 2026, following projected gains of 2% in 2025 and 4.5% last year.
“It’s not a dramatic reset, but it’s a meaningful shift that moves the market back toward balance,” said Hale.
National median home sales prices rose around 44% in the decade spanning the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2020, before jumping another 30% in the five years spanning the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2025.
Median sales prices that have risen a combined 87% over 15 years from $219,500 in the second quarter of 2010 to $410,800 as of the second quarter of 2025 have helped to sideline many younger, first-time homebuyers struggling to overcome affordability barriers.
With inflation forecast to continue outpacing home price gains, “real” or inflation-adjusted home prices will likely decline slightly for a second consecutive year in 2026, says Realtor.com.
Some improved affordability may emerge next year for homebuyers and renters, too, helped by continued inventory gains.
Active listings are forecast to rise 8.9% in 2026, slower than the 15.2% growth in active listings observed in 2025, with for-sale inventory expected to hover around 12% below pre-2020 averages — an improvement from respective 19% and 30% deficits in 2025 and 2026.
The monthly payment to buy a typical home is forecast to slide to 29.3% of median income, its first year below the widely cited 30% affordability threshold since 2022.
Easing mortgage rates and decelerating home price gains are forecast to lower the typical monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home by 1.3% in 2026.
Rent softening is projected to continue into next year as more multifamily units come online, driving concentrated affordability gains for renters in markets across the South and West, says Realtor.com. Rents are projected to decline 1% nationwide in 2026.
While a recession is not in its base-case housing outlook for 2026, “the economy remains in a sensitive period of adjustment,” the Realtor.com outlook noted, forecasting a 3.1% annual rise in new single-family home construction in 2016 to around 1 million units.
Fiscal and trade volatility stemming from Trump administration policies, a softening labor market, inflationary pressures on household budgets and Federal Reserve monetary policy that “remains a major wildcard” could accelerate or stymie growth in housing next year, the analysis concludes.
