Demand headwinds and consumer pessimism will likely drive a yearly decline in new-home construction activity in 2026, exacerbated by global energy and trade shocks from the ongoing Iran war, the impacts of which intensify the longer the conflict continues.
“Duration matters,” said Tim Sullivan, chief advisory officer at Zonda, delivering a second-quarter housing forecast in a webinar livestreamed by the home building data platform on Thursday. New construction activity declined measurably in 2025 from year-before levels.
“Moments of activity, sections of opportunity,” Sullivan continued, emphasizing key regional opportunities but lingering frictions and renewed trade uncertainties that pushed builder optimism lower in April. “Overall, kind ...