While the war against Iran seems to be entering a new phase this week, with a tenuous ceasefire tested by continued hostilities, the economic fallout of the conflict on U.S. consumers may be just beginning.
Though the war’s localized impacts on individual household budgets have not yet triggered widespread alarm, one top private-sector economist says an economic recession may already be playing out.
“Abstracting from the vagaries of the monthly data, few jobs have been added since Liberation Day a year ago, and without healthcare, the economy would be losing jobs,” wrote Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, in a LinkedIn post on Monday.
“And all of this before the economic fallout from the hostilities with Iran hits,” he added....