The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for total U.S. mortgage originations is roughly 14% over the past three years — not a bad bounce off the 2023 bottom, when spiking interest rates drove the 30-year fixed over 7% and brought the pandemic-fueled refinance boom to a stop.
Total mortgage originations for 2026 are projected at about $2.15 trillion, a modest 5% increase over 2025’s $2.05 trillion. Growth remains sluggish as lenders compete over relatively small purchase volumes.
Meanwhile, the CAGR for the non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) market over the same period is more than 60%. Non-QM originations are expected to top $175 billion in 2026, up from $108 billion in 2025 — a projected 62% increase in a single year. Investor demand remains ...
