Rising mortgage payments push down pending sales in October

Newly released Zillow data shows a sharp pullback in homebuying activity last month
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Rising mortgage payments push down pending sales in October

Newly released Zillow data shows a sharp pullback in homebuying activity last month
Rising mortgage payments push down pending sales in October

Homebuying demand continued to slide in October as pending home sales saw their sharpest annual decline in more than three years last month, according to Zillow.

Mortgage rates on typical 30-year loans have remained above 7% since the third week of September. Rates averaged 7.4% during the first half of October before easing to 7.18% as of early November, per Freddie Mac data.

The rise in borrowing costs pushed average mortgage payments nearly 13% higher than a year ago last month, sending newly pending home sales tumbling 17%.

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Existing-home sales declined nearly 9% year over year, per Zillow’s October market report.

“While there is no avoiding that this has been a very soft fall for for-sale activity,” noted Zillow Chief Economist Mischa Fisher in the report, “there are deals to be had for buyers able to brave the affordability headwinds in the coming months.

Fisher said at the end of the third quarter that he expects home sales to post annual declines on a monthly basis through the end of the year.

Zillow reports that higher mortgage costs are “almost exclusively due” to higher rates. Typical home values were only 0.7% higher year over year in October and down 0.6% from September.

Freddie Mac data shows mortgage rates averaging 7.33% in October compared to 6.86% the previous month. Higher insurance and taxes, however, have eroded broader homeownership affordability, increasing the share of monthly income required to sustain homeownership beyond simply qualifying for a loan to purchase a house.

Zillow says households earning the median income would have to spend 34.7% of their monthly income to make the typical monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home using a 20% downpayment, including estimates for taxes, maintenance and insurance. That is 2% higher than the 32.7% recorded a year ago and up from 33.5% in September.

As purchase demand sagged last month, homes took a median of 31 days to move into pending status in October — two days longer than a year ago and the previous month’s mark.

Since late August, purchase mortgage demand has consistently remained 10% lower year over year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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