As the race to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heats up with 2025 winding down, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to potential nominees: loyalty to his low interest-rate agenda is non-negotiable.

With the nomination decision expected “in the coming weeks,” the President has reportedly narrowed his list to two main contenders — White House adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh — setting the stage for a reshape of the central bank that critics fear could imperil its traditional independence.

The search for a successor comes as the U.S. economy posts its strongest growth in two years, expanding at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter. Despite this robust data — or perhaps because of it — Trump has drawn a red line for prospective Fed Chairs, declaring in a Truth Social post on Dec. 23 that anyone who disagrees with cutting rates during good economic times “will never become the Chairmen of the Federal Reserve!”

This demand, if enforced, places the next Chair in a challenging bind: capitulate to the White House’s push for rates as low as 1% and risk spiking inflation, or uphold the Fed’s data-driven, independent mandate and face President Trump’s wrath.

Prediction markets and insiders point to Kevin Hasset and Kevin Warsh as the front-runners to succeed Powell when his term expires in May 2026. Trump recently referred to the pair as the “Two Kevins,” calling them both “great” options.

Hasset, currently the director of the National Economic Council, is viewed as the loyalist choice. He has been a vocal critic of the Fed’s current leadership and argues there is ample room for interest rate cuts due to strong productivity.

As of Dec. 24, the prediction market Kalshi showed Hassett with a 58% chance of securing the nomination.

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, is seen as a more traditional, Wall Street-favored candidate, though he has also criticized the Fed’s drift into politically charged areas like climate change, the Wall Street Journal reported. According to Kalshi, he sits behind Hasset in a distant second, with markets giving him a 25% chance.

Other candidates, like Fed Governor Christopher Waller, appear to be fading from contention. As of today, he had a 12% chance of nomination, down from a high of over 25% in late November.