Consumer outlooks on business and financial conditions brightened in June as the U.S. and Iran extended a fragile ceasefire, helping to ease gas prices and inflation fears.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its closely watched Consumer Confidence Index nudged up 0.6 points to 91.2 from a downward revision of 90.6 in May. Outlooks overall were strongest among consumers age 35 or younger.
“However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%” compared to 19.8% in May, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the research think tank.
That’s the highest level since January 2021, and flies in the face of a resilient rate of job openings in recent months, though actual hirings have slowed notably. Peterson cautioned that negative job market perceptions could persist.
“Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now,” she noted. In particular, 15.2% of consumers expect more jobs to be available by the end of the year, compared to 16.6% in May.
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Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions declined in June, though their expectations for better business conditions and income improved, underscoring the uncertainty facing many consumers.
Yet, as gas prices eased in response to cooling hostilities in the Middle East, “references to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency” in consumers’ write-in responses. Such responses on factors affecting the economy skewed toward pessimism, in line with recent months.
“Mentions of war, geopolitics and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East,” said The Conference Board.
Consequently, year-ahead inflation expectations fell, with fewer respondents saying they expect “higher interest rates” over the next 12 months. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose 4.1% annually in May, well above the U.S. central bank’s stated 2% target.




