The national rate of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in distress has increased to 11.2% in October, according to loan data from CRED iQ.
The commercial real estate analytics platform reported that of the $617 billion in conduit and single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) loans, 11.2% are now delinquent, past maturity or with a special servicer. The total is up from 10.9% a year ago.
The growth in distressed loans is an example of how quickly the commercial lending environment can change. The distress is also shifting from New York City, San Francisco and Miami to other major metropolitan areas, including Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.
CRED iQ’s property alerts flagged $4.5 billion of conduit and SASB debt as newly delinquent or with a special servicer in October alone. The distressed loans included $1.5 billion in office properties and $1.1 billion in hotels. Retail properties accounted for $700 million and industrial sites made up $500 million worth of distressed properties.
News services report that more debt maturities are approaching, and the question remains whether servicers will continue modifying and extending loans to avoid foreclosures.
In New York City, the overall commercial property distress rate fell 129 basis points from a year ago to 11.2%. San Francisco’s overall distress rate fell 231 basis points year over year to 17.5%. Miami saw it distress rate fall 251 basis points in the past year to 3.1% in October.
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At the same time, Los Angeles experienced a jump of 511 basis points in its CMBS distress rate in the past year to 14.6%. Office distress more than doubled to 21.5% in October from 9.9% a year ago. Chicago’s CMBS distress rate rose four percentage points to 23.5% and Houston suffered a 29-basis-point increase in CMBS distress to 15.3%.
The office sector accounted for 16.4% of the distressed CMBS loans, up from 14.7% a year ago. Among the 15 largest metropolitan areas, Philadelphia suffered the highest office loan distress, with 37.4%, followed by Chicago with 32.6% and Houston with 31.5%.
Mixed-use loan distress fell to 13.8% in October, down from 14.5% a year ago. Retail loan distress rose to 10.8% from last year’s 10%. Distressed loans in the multifamily sector declined to 8.7% from 9.3% one year ago. Distressed loans in the industrial sector fell to 1.9% from last year’s 2.8%.
CRED iQ reports full occupancy is no protection from distress.
“The test is whether a loan can be refinanced at today’s rates and values, and in October it was failing in Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston as well as New York,” the report stated.
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Jeff Bond is a contributing writer for Scotsman Guide and a former editor of the publication’s magazine.




