Another inflation report just flashed warning signs

PPI inflation comes in hot, putting further pressure on the Fed ahead of the midterms

Another inflation report just flashed warning signs

PPI inflation comes in hot, putting further pressure on the Fed ahead of the midterms
Wholesale inflation surged in September, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its October rate decision.

Wholesale inflation accelerated 1.3% in September, government figures released Thursday show, marking the largest monthly gain since March 2022.

That brought the producer price index (PPI) up to a 6.3% increase on a 12-month basis, the biggest annual jump since December 2022.

Economists polled by FactSet had expected a 0.5% monthly and 5.3% annual rise in the supply-chain price index.

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Drilling down, final demand goods prices rose 2.6% in September, while services prices ticked up 0.8%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that half of last month’s increase in goods prices came from the gasoline index, which spiked 20.3% amid continued supply-chain pressures from the Iran war.

Additional oil-related categories such as jet fuel and diesel also posted double-digit increases. Other notable gainers included fresh and dry vegetables, which leaped 41% month over month, and grains prices, which rose 17.4%.

The PPI, which measures the average change in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE index isn’t set for its next update until Oct. 29, one day after the Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting.

Several Fed officials have signaled that policymakers may hold off on raising the benchmark federal funds rate in October following a quarter-point hike in September.

But the scorching PPI print and hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading earlier this week have ratcheted up the pressure to potentially hike at back-to-back meetings.

With some controversial exceptions, the Fed has historically avoided making rate adjustments at the policy meeting immediately preceding a general or midterm national election, to avoid the appearance of political meddling.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak in Thailand at 11:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday at a fireside chat hosted by the International Monetary Fund. Though Warsh has been notably tight-lipped during his six months in office, his remarks will still be closely parsed for clues to the Fed’s next move.

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