Existing-home sales are expected to rise 4% this year, with median home prices also climbing 4%, according to the most recent forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Mortgage rates are expected to remain at an average of 6.5% this year, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. On a happier note, Yun emphasized the wealth-building aspect of homeownership at a NAR forum this week, pointing out the typical homeowner can look forward to gaining about $16,000 in wealth this year as home prices continue to rise.

“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels,” Yun was quoted as saying in a press release.

The NAR forecast calls for the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2026 due to the investments being made in artificial intelligence and data centers. The unemployment rate is expected to remain below 5% and job gains will reach 400,000 this year, according to the projections.

As for the increasing cost of housing, Yun said his research shows that in 25 years, the national median home price will rise from about $430,000 in 2026 to $1 million in 2051.

To put home prices in perspective, Yun noted that the national median home price in 1990 was $90,000. Expensive cities, such as San Francisco, saw median prices that year reach $250,000.

Despite a sense that the housing market is currently in gridlock, NAR officials have found that some buyer segments are actively purchasing homes. However, the market remains uneven and beset with misinformation.

Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said that many potential homebuyers are under the impression they need a 20% downpayment. But the typical downpayment for a first-time homebuyer was just 10% in 2025.

“I’ve been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it’s a really wonky market,” Lautz said in a press release. “You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other.”