During the fall of 2025, fears that lackluster job creation could turn negative as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, immigration crackdown and federal workforce overhauls took effect prompted Federal Reserve officials to execute three consecutive quarter-point cuts to its benchmark interest rate between September and December.
This year, Fed policymakers raised the federal funds rate in mid-September for the first time since 2023 amid rising inflation stoked by the Iran war. They then paused the rate-hike cycle in October, despite noting in the official Federal Open Market Committee policy statement that "inflation remains elevated."
The FOMC tends to avoid adjusting policy right before federal elections. But weaker-than-ex...
