Producer price index flat in July, though core services prices accelerate

Headline figures beat consensus forecasts as underlying challenges remain

Producer price index flat in July, though core services prices accelerate

Headline figures beat consensus forecasts as underlying challenges remain
Producer price index cools in July, though core services prices accelerate

Producer price inflation was flat last month, coming in below consensus estimates though remaining elevated on a year-over-year basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in the producer price index (PPI) for July.

On an annual basis, PPI inflation was 4.7% higher than a year ago, down from 5.5% in June and lower than consensus forecasts of 4.9% annual growth.

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June’s previously reported 0.3% PPI decrease was revised upward to just a 0.1% decline, indicating producer prices did not decline as much as initially thought.

Thursday’s PPI inflation print, which measures changes in prices that domestic producers receive for their output, follows a soft consumer price index reading on Wednesday that was broadly viewed as relieving some pressure on Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates next month.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, is scheduled to be published with July updates in the last week of August.

Easing energy prices helped sustain declines in the index for final demand, which fell 0.7% on the heels of a 1.4% decrease in June. Final demand services prices also decelerated, rising 0.2% in July compared to 0.5% growth in June.

Of note, PPI surveys collect data early in the month, meaning resurgent energy prices in the latter half of July, when Iran war hostilities escalated, likely are not reflected in last month’s reading.

Even as headline figures in the all-items index tracked lower, core PPI measures that exclude volatile food, energy and trade margins accelerated 0.4% in July compared to the previous month’s 0.1% increase.

Higher core services prices fueled the rise, increasing 0.6% over the month compared to 0.2% growth in June. That index strips out more geopolitically sensitive prices in transportation, warehousing and final demand trade services, which all declined in July.

Core services inflation can be trickier to dislodge than one-time price hikes associated with tariffs or energy shocks, which Fed policymakers are more inclined to look through.

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