Though mortgage originators see challenges ahead, they were overwhelmingly optimistic at the start of 2026, based on feedback given in January to Scotsman Guide’s Mortgage Originator Sentiment Survey (MOSS).
Nearly 9 in 10 originators (88.8%) expected business to improve over the next six months. Not a single respondent expected it to get worse, while 11.2% anticipated business conditions would remain about the same.
“The fact that 90% of originators expected their business to improve tells me that we are an industry of optimists, and I love it!” said Brendan McKay, a loan originator with McKay Mortgage Co. and co-founder of the Broker Action Coalition. “Hell, anyone who made it through 2023 and 2024 has all the reasons in the world to be optimistic.”
McKay told Scotsman Guide that in this environment, he is prepared for anything.
“If I were to use one word to define the next 12 months, it would be ‘volatility,’” he explained. “Now, volatility is a bad thing for markets craving stability like ours, but when there is volatility, there is opportunity. I expect nimble, forward-thinking mortgage companies to thrive, and old battleships to sink.”
Of the 645 originators who responded to the survey, 57.5% cited interest rates as a potential barrier for closings through the end of the second quarter.
The most frequently listed challenges pointed to a clear cluster of macroeconomic concerns: home prices (39.4%), the economy (37.5%), housing inventory (36.3%) and homebuyer demand (21.2%) rounded out the top five concerns.
The survey indicated higher hopes than the numbers seen in previous years.
The January 2025 survey saw 78% of respondents expecting their business to perform better, with 21% saying “same” and 1% saying “worse.” At the start of 2024, 73% of originators expressed optimism for the first half of the year.
This year’s positivity carried over into originators’ hiring and recruiting plans. More than half (52.6%) stated they intended to hire during the next six months, 24% said maybe and 23.4% said they were not looking to hire.
The respondents had an average of 16 years of origination experience. By job type, 318 were brokers and 327 were bankers. There were 30 originators who were military veterans.
The survey was sent to originators who qualified for Scotsman Guide’s Top Originator rankings, or those who produced more than $25 million in loan volume or closed more than 75 loans last year.
