The good, the bad and the big rate-cut impact of September’s job report

Labor market flexes resilience, but what does that mean for the Fed's rate cut schedule?

The good, the bad and the big rate-cut impact of September’s job report

Labor market flexes resilience, but what does that mean for the Fed's rate cut schedule?
CONCEPT Jobs and interest rates going up brightened

A jobs report that was expected to deliver moderate employment growth in September ended up packing a far larger punch, underscoring the resilience of the nation’s labor market but dampening hopes of blockbuster interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the short term.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 in September, blowing expectations out of the water. August’s initially reported gain, for comparison, was a much more modest 142,000, though upward revisions in this report also added some 72,000 jobs in July and August than were estimated previously. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast employment growth of 140,000; September’s reported increase bests that figure by an additional 80%.

Moreover, September’s labor pickup marked 45 straight months with at least 100,000 job gains or more, a new record.

The strong month thawed simmering concerns that the pace of labor market deceleration was a harbinger of economic strife. In fact, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, proclaimed that “there is no national economic recession on the horizon.”

Yun also noted that wage gains, which had been tempering, turned northward again — and that healthy upticks in jobs and income are good for housing.

“The annual wage gains also accelerated to 4.0% after softening to 3.6% just two months earlier,” he said. “More jobs mean more real estate demand, from retail spaces to apartment leases. Home buying will also increase, provided the conditions are right, and more inventory choices … will help.”

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, agreed that the report pointed toward a successful “soft landing,” but noted that some details beyond the headline figures bear watching moving forward.

“While the aggregate job gains were strong, as in prior months this year, the growth was concentrated in a few industries, notably food services, health care, construction, and government hiring,” Fratantoni observed. “Spending and hiring at restaurants and bars is potentially at risk if consumers continue to pull back on discretionary items, as some data have indicated.”

Fratantoni also noted the report’s more direct impact on the mortgage market: the potential effect of a stronger-than-expected job market on the direction of inflation. While resilient employment is generally positive for housing and for the greater economy, it can also hamper the dwindling of inflation toward the Fed’s 2% goal. That could influence the Fed to slow its expected pace of interest rate lowering, which can put upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

Indeed, Fratantoni observed that interest rates — which had already seen a slight uptick in recent days — are already reacting unfavorably.

“Interest rates jumped on the release of this report,” he said. “MBA’s forecast is for longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, to remain within a relatively narrow range over the next year. This news will push mortgage rates to the top of that range, but we do expect that mortgage rates will stay close to 6% over the next 12 months.”

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