Consumer sentiment rebounds again in July

But renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran threatens to upend fragile recovery in economic sentiment

Consumer sentiment rebounds again in July

But renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran threatens to upend fragile recovery in economic sentiment
Consumer confidence extends rebound in July

U.S. consumers reported brighter economic outlooks for a second consecutive month in July, bringing broad-based optimism close to levels seen before the Iran war.

The University of Michigan’s closely watched index of consumer sentiment notched a second straight monthly gain of about 10%, according to initial July survey results published Friday.

“All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions,” noted Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers at the university, commenting in the report.

Consumers’ views on current economic conditions improved more than 15% over the month, compared to a 4.1% improvement in June, while the index tracking future economic expectations climbed 6.5%, compared to 15% growth the previous month.

In June, Hsu said consumers’ concerns about the enduring impacts of the Iran war, which began in late February, appeared to be easing. In July, though, she cautioned that “upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain if recent declines in gas prices continue to reverse course.”

An extended ceasefire announced by the U.S. and Iran in mid-June enabled oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz once more, which had effectively ceased from March through early June.

But the U.S. and Iran resumed hostilities after the July 4 holiday week, pushing oil prices higher and renewing fears of a protracted conflict. Interviews for the initial July survey ran from June 23 to July 13, “with more than 70% completed” before attacks resumed and traffic through the strait was disrupted.

Despite two months’ of improving sentiment, the university’s overall index remained nearly 12% below last year’s levels, leading Hsu to comment that “with prices remaining frustratingly high, consumers are hardly ebullient about the economy.”

Year-ahead inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.2%, though down from 4.6% in June. The consumer price index for June, updated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, showed cooler inflation than consensus forecasts expected at 3.5% annual growth compared to 4.2% growth in May and below April’s 3.8% rate.

Long-run inflation expectations “held steady” from June levels at 3.3%, Hsu said, as improvement in sentiment was “pervasive across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party.”

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