Consumer confidence slumps in July

Despite economic pessimism, survey suggests homebuying activity will pick up

Consumer confidence slumps in July

Despite economic pessimism, survey suggests homebuying activity will pick up
Consumer confidence slumps in July

U.S. consumer sentiment has experienced a summertime setback, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling 1.4 points in July to a 90.8 reading.

The nonprofit think tank and research group’s index gauging consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions dipped 3.6 points, to 114.9, while its forward-looking Expectations Index was flat at 74.7 for the survey period spanning July 1 through 22.

In June, the overall confidence index had edged up 0.6 points to 91.2. That reading has now been upwardly revised to 92.2.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist, stated in a press release.

Peterson noted a general softening in consumer perceptions of both current business conditions and the labor market.

“Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative,” she added. “Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

The Conference Board subtracts the number of consumers who say jobs are “hard to get” from those who say jobs are “plentiful” to calculate the labor market differential. It clocked in at 3.1% this month, a decline of 0.7 percentage points.

The report noted that average and median 12-month inflation expectations were “less elevated in July,” though 61.3% of consumers expect higher interest rates over the next year.

But consumer spending appears likely to remain resilient, the survey results suggest, with planned expenditures on dining out, entertainment activities and domestic travel all ticking up in July.

“Homebuying and auto purchasing expectations continued their upward trend on a six-month moving average basis,” the report observed.

Write-in responses showed lingering pessimism about the economic impacts of the ongoing war with Iran. Consumer comments about gas prices eased this month but “remain elevated,” the report noted, while references to food and grocery prices increased.

“Mentions of war, geopolitics and conflict eased during the sample period,” The Conference Board reported. “However, as the fighting has reaccelerated quite recently there could be an increase in these mentions in the revised data for July.”

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