Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans crossed a crucial threshold this week that few — if any — industry watchers expected they would cross in 2026.

That threshold, in a phrase, is “higher than a year ago.”

Freddie Mac reported Thursday that mortgage rates for typical 30-year home loans averaged 6.69% over the weekly period ending Thursday, which was three basis points higher than last week and six points higher than the same week a year ago.

Notching one-year highs in mortgage rates went unaddressed by the government-sponsored enterprise in commentary released alongside the rate survey data.

“While mortgage rates continue to influence affordability,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, “the housing market is showing signs of adjustment, with listing prices modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory improving from the limited supply seen in recent years.”

Rates for 15-year fixed-rate loans declined slightly this week, averaging 6.01% compared to 6.04% last week, but well above the 5.75% level recorded a year ago.

At the end of last year, consensus forecasts from housing economists had 30-year rates spending 2026 between 6% and 6.5%. Just five months ago, rates had dipped into the high-5% range — before the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran in late February.

Since then, mortgage rates have marched upward as energy and trade shocks linked to the war have compounded existing inflationary pressures from Trump administration tariffs, ballooning federal deficits and massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence.

In recent weeks, heightened geopolitical uncertainty has been amplified by reforms at the Federal Reserve enacted by its new chair, Kevin Warsh. A key feature of those reforms includes the dropping of forward guidance in Fed communications, clouding bond markets’ view of how the U.S. central bank regards its price stability mandate.

“Consequently, long-term interest rates increased, steepening the yield curve,” explained Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, in market commentary published Wednesday.

A separate measure of weekly fluctuations in mortgage borrowing costs published by the Mortgage Bankers Association also reflected one-year highs when it was updated Wednesday, with the trade group reporting 30-year rates averaging 6.81% to close out July.