Fed’s Barkin signals more rate hikes may be coming

‘Inflation is our troublemaker,’ the central banker declares

Fed’s Barkin signals more rate hikes may be coming

‘Inflation is our troublemaker,’ the central banker declares
Fed’s Barkin signals more rate hikes may be coming.

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Bank of Richmond, is also a father of two.

So it wasn’t too surprising when the central banker used a parenting analogy to describe the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter point last week.

Keeping inflation anchored near 2% and maintaining full employment is like raising two very different kids, Barkin explained Tuesday during a speech in Baltimore. You keep an eye on both, but sometimes one needs more attention.

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“Today, inflation is our troublemaker,” Barkin said, noting that it has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more five years, with more than 60% percent of the categories in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rising in excess of 3% year over year in July.

Meanwhile, the labor market has been a model student of late. Barkin observed that August’s 4.1% unemployment reading extended “the longest streak in recorded history of U.S. unemployment at or below 4.5%.”

Barkin is part of a rotating group of regional Fed presidents who cycle on and off the voting contingent of the Federal Open Market Committee. He does not have a monetary policy vote in 2026 but will in 2027.

Still, it was clear from Tuesday’s comments that he supported the unanimous FOMC decision to hike rates in September.

“We are committed to returning inflation sustainably to our 2% target. Last week’s hike will help,” Barkin said. “Will additional hikes be required, and how many? We’ll see.”

He added that while he’s open to the possibility that inflationary shocks “could come back down in short order,” inflation could be hard to tame if firming demand conditions flow through to prices.

He then turned to another parenting analogy, suggesting additional monetary tightening may be in store: “Like in child rearing, one ‘talking-to’ might not be enough.”

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