The pace of existing-home sales plunged to its lowest level since 2010 in October as elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on transaction volumes for a fourth consecutive year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Thursday.

Falling to just 3.75 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, home sales declined by roughly 5.5% from September to land nearly 9% lower than a year ago last month.

Average mortgage rates for typical 30-year loans jumped from around 7% in mid-September to a peak of 7.4% in mid-October, before easing to just 7.2% by the end of the month, according to Freddie Mac data. The hit to mortgage affordability triggered a predictable decline in homebuying activity.

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Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Realtor trade group, struck a realistic tone in a press release announcing the latest home sale data, describing homebuying conditions as “difficult” as borrowing costs hover near their highest levels in years.

“Based on the current underwhelming home sales pace at a time of consistent job growth, there could be sizable pent-up demand if mortgage rates decline,” said Yun.

Years of persistent affordability challenges that have pushed first-time homebuyer purchase share to around just 20% over the past two years suggests Yun is likely correct. Any meaningful improvement in rates or home prices could loosen entrenched lock-in effects while making households’ monthly payment burdens more sustainable.

Experts nevertheless say that any light at the end of the housing affordability tunnel remains well in the distance with 30-year rates expected to remain above 7% through the end of next year. The median existing-home price was $416,700 in October.

That’s up just 0.4% from a year ago but is more than 63% higher than the median price of $255,100 in October 2018, just eight years ago. Realtor.com reported earlier this week that new purchase mortgages in September had a principal and interest payment roughly $1,100 higher per month than the median existing mortgage nationwide.

“As buyers wait for rate relief, homes are sitting on the market longer, resulting in for-sale inventory climbing close to pre-pandemic levels,” said Fan-Yu Kuo, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders, in an analysis published Thursday after the sales figures landed.

Kuo noted that the pullback in sales across all four U.S. regions pushed unsold inventory levels to their highest point since November 2015. Transactions declined year over year by 4.1% in the Northeast, 8% in the South, 8.2% in the Midwest and 14.5% in the West.

For now, surging rates since late summer have fueled a broad retreat in homebuying activity in September and October, pushing already low sales volumes even lower. Pending home sales data from last month suggests closed contracts in November will similarly disappoint.

Pending home sales are down more than 11% from year-ago levels, according to NAR, and are at their lowest levels since 2001.

The existing-home sales data reported on Thursday reflects closed contract activity. October closings largely represent deals that went under contract in September when 30-year rates averaged between 6.7% and 7.3%, per Freddie Mac data.

“We could see further weakness, since buyers who stepped back when rates hit 7.4% in mid-October won’t show up as missing sales until November and December closings,” said Sean Fergus, vice president of economic research at Zonda, a data platform catering to home builders.

“Rates have since eased,” added Fergus in commentary shared with Scotsman Guide, “but buyers need to trust that relief will last before they come back in force.”