National home prices increased in November at roughly the same annual pace as October and less than half the pace recorded a year ago, new data released Tuesday shows.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year in November as U.S. home prices continue to register their weakest performance since mid-2023.
Home prices rose 3.7% annually from November 2023 to November 2024. But they fell 0.11% from October to November after sliding 0.14% from September to October.
“November’s results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth,” commented Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in analysis accompanying updates to the index.
For the sixth consecutive month, beginning last June, home price gains have lagged consumer price inflation, meaning “real” home prices have declined relative to rising prices in other consumer spending categories.
That erosion of housing wealth “reflects the market’s new equilibrium,” Godec said last summer, when the trend first emerged. He affirmed that trend in Tuesday’s release, noting that “monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness.”
After years of double-digit home price gains from 2020 to 2022, slower appreciation is projected to continue in 2026 and 2027 as both homebuyers and sellers grapple with affordability and shifting market power.
After a surge in seller activity last summer, many sellers delisted their properties amid slow demand to avoid selling below their price target. Constrained housing inventory, which seller activity helps to adjust like a thermostat, has curbed price softening in some regional markets, even as monthly mortgage payments have roughly doubled since 2020.
“Price growth continued to be strongest in Northeast and Midwest markets where inventory is constrained,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at multiple listing service Bright MLS, sharing her reaction to Tuesday’s home price data with Scotsman Guide.
“Home prices are lower year over year in many Sun Belt markets where demand has pulled back and inventory is back above pre-pandemic levels,” she added.
Homebuyer demand is being driven by affordability, which has worsened in recent years due to high home prices, elevated mortgage rates and rising property tax and homeowners insurance costs. Low affordability caps potential home-price gains by restricting demand, shrinking the pool of active buyers relative to active sellers.
Composite indexes of the national Case-Shiller HPI reflected a slight uptick in home price gains across U.S. metros in November. The 10-city composite index showed an annual rise of 2% compared to 1.9% growth in October, while the 20-city composite index showed 1.4% yearly growth, up from 1.3% growth the previous month.
Chicago and New York led the U.S. in annual home price gains in November, posting 5.7% and 5% growth, respectively, followed by Cleveland, where home prices rose 3.7%.
Cities across the Sun Belt saw the steepest annual declines, with prices in Tampa, Fla., Dallas, Phoenix and Miami observing respective declines of 3.8%, 1.4%, 1.3% and 1%.
“Regional price trends remained highly fragmented, with local inventory conditions continuing to drive divergence across metros,” said Anthony Smith, senior economist at listings platform Realtor.com, in commentary published on its website Tuesday.
