Growth across private payrolls missed consensus estimates for the second consecutive month in July, according to employer data published Wednesday by payroll processing firm ADP.
Private sector firms added 44,000 jobs in July compared to expectations of 75,000 forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast gains of 70,000.
The weaker private sector hiring gains in July represent the lowest monthly tally of the year, according to ADP data. The company’s National Employment Report for July included a downward revision to June’s initial payroll estimates, from 98,000 gains to 95,000.
Education and health services sectors led the monthly rise, adding 36,000 positions last month, followed by 10,000 job gains in the financial activities sector.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, underscored outsized wage gains in July for workers who changed jobs last month. They saw 7% pay growth on a year-over-year basis, the largest such gains in almost year.
“Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market,” said Richardson.
Elevated macroeconomic volatility linked to the ongoing Iran war has disrupted labor conditions across certain parts of the economy, however.
Get these articles in your inbox
Sign up for our daily newsletter
Get these articles in your inbox
Sign up for our daily newsletter
In a surprising downturn, the leisure and hospitality sector shed 11,000 jobs in July. Though job growth typically rises at restaurants and hotels over the summer months, that sector only posted 2,000 job gains in June, ADP previously reported.
Higher gasoline prices and airfare costs amid the ongoing Iran war may have curtailed some discretionary consumer spending this summer, but many cities across the U.S. also experienced a surge in World Cup-related spending during June and July.
“Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macroeconomic conditions,” added Richardson.
Wednesday’s private payroll updates come on the heels of government estimates released Tuesday showing job openings declined in June as hiring and separations each inched higher.
As inflation has accelerated since the Iran war began in late February, resilient though concentrated job gains have enabled the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark borrowing rate steady at recent meetings, including when policymakers met last week.
The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain stable prices and full employment. Inflation has been above the U.S. central bank’s stated 2% inflation target for more than five years.
The nationwide unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last month. BLS is due to release official government estimates of July hiring gains on Friday, including an updated unemployment rate.




