Though only late January, millions of renter households across the U.S. will soon begin to ask themselves — if they haven’t already — if they want to renew their leases. A large portion of those households will ask themselves if they can finally afford to buy a house.

But for renters eyeing this spring homebuying season as their window to purchase a home, optimistic about softening home prices and increased listings, access to cash will largely determine their access to homebuying.

For less liquid borrowers, that reality is amplified by the fact that saving for a downpayment is disproportionately difficult for budget-minded renters feeling inflated costs across their household spending.

Average 30-year mortgage rates have been between 8% and 6% from 2023 to 2025, raising interest costs on loan amounts that have also spiked in recent years in line with home prices.

Downpayment size as a share of home price has also been steadily rising, further amplifying affordability challenges alongside skyrocketing property taxes and homeowners insurance costs.

Shifting homebuying windows

Many leases renew in late spring or early summer, aligning with the traditional peak homebuying season.

Post-pandemic, however, peak homebuying season has shifted earlier in the year. February has been the strongest or second-strongest month for existing-home sales since 2022, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) data, with December activity close behind.

Initial estimates show existing-home sales totaled 4.06 million in 2025, capping three straight years of the most sluggish sales pace since the mid-1990s.

With most housing economists predicting another slow year for home sales in 2026, purchasing power in the single-family market will likely continue to shift in favor of more liquid borrowers — those with access to cash for higher downpayments — as high home prices and elevated mortgage rates put pressure on monthly payments.

Downpayments as a share of home price have risen from an average of around 10% in 2013 to 19% in 2025, according to NAR data.

First-time homebuyer downpayment share rose from around 5% in 2013 to 10% in 2025, even as their purchase share has fallen below 25% for the past two years.

Despite the higher downpayments, however, borrowers qualifying for mortgage financing in recent years look increasingly leveraged, with higher debt-to-income (DTI) ratios relative to their gross monthly income and outstanding non-housing related debt.

A nation of renters?

These trends are unfolding during an era of historically low U.S. household savings rates and historically high household debt.

Personal savings as a share of disposable income has declined sharply over the past 50 years, from about 13% in the 1970s to 2.25% in 2005 and 4.2% as of the third quarter of 2025, which is roughly 1% to 2% below pre-pandemic averages, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

Meanwhile, labor share of gross domestic product — workers’ slice of the economic pie, measured by the Labor Department as “the percentage of economic output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation” — is at its lowest level since 1947, down from 64% in 2000 to below 54% as of the third quarter of 2025.

This is how the U.S. could become the nation of renters that President Donald Trump vowed the country would not become in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday.

Diverging economic outcomes in a K-shaped economy keeps shifting access to homeownership higher up the income ladder, widening wealth disparities between low-, middle- and top-earners, fueled by stock market gains and trillions of dollars in home equity.

The top 1% of U.S. households now hold 31.7% of the nation’s wealth as of the third quarter of 2025. That slice of the pie totals $55 trillion, which is nearly equal to the bottom 90% of households combined, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Federal Reserve data.

Sidelined demand among entry-level homebuyers has maintained upward price pressure on lower-priced homes, where a longstanding housing supply shortage is most acutely felt by renters stuck renting.

Amid a supply shortage and slow sales environment, that bottleneck renders homebuying a more exclusive economic activity increasingly reserved for more liquid earners higher up the income ladder.

‘A very tough choice’

Figures published Thursday by real estate analytics firm Attom show that owning a home remained the more affordable long-term option than renting a three-bedroom property in 57% of U.S. counties with populations exceeding 100,000 at the start of 2026. In more than two-thirds of counties analyzed, however, median home prices rose faster than rents in 2025.

That disparity highlights the widening downpayment gap raising the cost of entry to the housing market, keeping prospective homebuyers stuck renting.

“The data shows that buying is typically the most affordable long-term option,” noted Attom CEO Rob Barber, “but as the housing market sets new record-high prices quarter after quarter, affording the initial investment becomes increasingly challenging.”

Renting a three-bedroom unit consumed more than one-third of a typical resident’s wages in about 77% of U.S. counties analyzed by Attom, while homeownership expenses accounted for more than a third of the typical resident’s wages in about 66% of counties.

On a regional level, homeownership expenses consumed more than a third of a typical resident’s wages in just 30% of counties in the Midwest, compared to 61% of counties in the South, 86% in the Northeast and nearly 97% in the West.

“Renters looking to put down roots, young families who need more space, professionals relocating for work and many others are facing a very tough choice,” said Barber.