Mortgage applications nudged up slightly last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said Wednesday, as mortgage rates held around their elevated levels of the past six weeks.
The MBA’s Mortgage Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Purchase demand fell slightly while refinances outperformed, rising to a 41.5% share of overall application activity and continuing a steady climb from 38% share in the last week of May.
“Despite the elevated mortgage rates and overall economic uncertainty, mortgage application volume is running 8% above year-ago levels,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the MBA, in a statement accompanying the figures.
The refinance component index rose 3% from the previous week to land 17% higher than a year ago, while the seasonally adjusted purchase component index fell 1% from the previous week. The unadjusted purchase index remained 3% higher than year-ago levels.
The share of applications for loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rose to 17.9% from 17.5% the previous week, while the percentage of applications for loans backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs fell to 12.3% from 12.9%.
MBA data shows the average mortgage rate for typical 30-year home purchase loans shed one basis point to land at 6.59% last week, marking its sixth consecutive week above 6.5%. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA was flat at 6.25%.
It is likely that mortgage rates will stay elevated through the end of 2026 and through 2027, the MBA projects, on account of inflation pressures, concerns about the U.S. federal deficit and geopolitical volatility.
Mortgage rates have remained consistent in recent weeks as persistent inflation has increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve may raise the federal funds rate before the end of the year.
Median forecasts at June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the first of Kevin Warsh’s tenure as chair, projected a fed funds rate of 3.8% by the end of 2026, a sharp pivot from the 3.4% median projection in March.
“Mortgage rates changed little over the course of last week, despite the more hawkish tone from the FOMC at its June meeting,” noted Fratantoni in Wednesday’s report.
